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This is a historical snapshot of U.S. rental market conditions as of Q4 2024. The 2021-2022 rent boom was fully unwound. The 2023-2024 supply wave was mostly absorbed. Here is what that meant for landlords going into 2025.
By RentalAnalytics Editorial Team · Published Q4 2024, last updated June 6, 2026
Note: This article reflects market conditions as of Q4 2024. For current vacancy and rent data, see the city reports page, updated quarterly.
Multifamily completions hit 608,000 units in 2024, the highest figure since 1986, according to National Association of Home Builders analysis of Census Bureau Survey of Construction data.[1] That pipeline was set in motion during the 2021-2022 rent boom, when developers broke ground en masse. Construction timelines of 18-24 months meant those projects completed precisely as rent growth was normalizing and demand was slowing post-pandemic.
The geographic concentration made the impact uneven. Sun Belt metros absorbed a disproportionate share of the new supply because they attracted the most development activity during the boom. Midwest markets saw far less new construction and experienced a much gentler market correction as a result.
Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville, and Atlanta all sat above 8% rental vacancy as of Q4 2024, above their 10-year medians. This was largely the product of 2023 deliveries compounding the 2024 completions surge. Most analysts at the time projected that 2024-2025 absorption would bring vacancy back toward the 7% range as supply tapered and population-driven demand continued to accumulate.
For context, the national rental vacancy rate sat at 6.6% in Q4 2024 per Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership data.[2] Sun Belt metro vacancy above 8% was roughly 1-2 percentage points above the national figure, a material spread for landlords managing break-even occupancy calculations.
Midwest cash-flow markets continued positive year-over-year rent growth through Q4 2024. Columbus, supported by ongoing logistics and technology employment; Indianapolis, driven by distribution sector expansion; and Kansas City, benefiting from mid-market migration trends, all maintained positive figures. These markets shared a common characteristic: significantly lower new supply deliveries relative to demand than their Sun Belt counterparts.
The divergence between Sun Belt and Midwest performance in Q4 2024 was the clearest example in years of why local vacancy and supply data matter more than national rent trend headlines. A single national average masked a 5-6 percentage point spread between the best and worst-performing markets.
Three practical implications applied for landlords in Sun Belt markets as of Q4 2024:
Midwest markets supported modest rent increases at lease renewal through Q4 2024. The fundamental driver was undersupply relative to employment-driven demand. Markets like Columbus, Indianapolis, and Kansas City had not attracted the same scale of development that Sun Belt metros had, so the supply-demand balance remained tighter and more favorable to landlords.
The practical implication was that 3-5% rent increases at renewal were defensible in Q4 2024 in core Midwest markets, without significant vacancy risk. Cap rate spreads between Tier 2 and Tier 1 markets were at multi-year highs during this period, which made Midwest acquisitions comparatively attractive on an income-yield basis.
This article reflects conditions as of Q4 2024. For current underwriting, pull updated vacancy figures from the Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey, updated quarterly. Use the RentalAnalytics cash flow analyzer with vacancy set to the current metro-level figure, not a historical average. For city-level rent and vacancy snapshots, see the city reports page.
Sun Belt markets that saw 25-35% rent growth in 2021-2022 posted negative year-over-year rent changes by Q4 2024. Austin fell roughly 3.4%, Phoenix roughly 2.1%, and Nashville roughly 1.2%. Record multifamily completions in 2023-2024 drove a supply-demand reset that fully unwound the pandemic-era rent surge.
The construction pipeline that began during the 2021-2022 rent boom delivered 608,000 new units in 2024, the highest figure since 1986, according to NAHB analysis of Census Bureau data. Projects started during peak rent conditions took 18-24 months to complete, flooding the market precisely when demand was normalizing.
Midwest cash-flow markets continued positive year-over-year growth in Q4 2024. Columbus, Indianapolis, Memphis, and Kansas City all posted positive figures, supported by steady employment growth and far less new supply than the Sun Belt absorbed during the same period.
Use the current metro vacancy rate rather than the long-run average. Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville, and Atlanta all sat above 8% vacancy in Q4 2024, above their 10-year medians. Using a historical 6-7% vacancy assumption in those markets would overstate projected income by 1-2% of gross rent.
Q4 2024 data provides useful context for understanding the supply wave and its geographic impact, but current underwriting should use updated vacancy and rent figures. The Census Bureau HVS and local market reports are updated quarterly. This article is a historical snapshot of conditions as of Q4 2024.
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