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As of the second quarter of 2026, the national rental vacancy rate was 7.3 percent and had not moved in a statistically meaningful way from a year earlier. Occupied rents were still rising, but slowly: July 2026 CPI rent of primary residence was up 2.9 percent from July 2025. This is a current Census, BLS, and HUD read, not a replay of the Q4 2024 snapshot.
By RentalAnalytics Editorial Team · Published September 2, 2026
The national survey can no longer distinguish a tighter market from last year. On July 28, 2026, the Census Bureau wrote that "National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2026 were 7.3 percent for rental housing and 1.2 percent for homeowner housing."[1] The rental rate was not statistically different from 7.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 and matched the first quarter of 2026.
Homeownership also held still at 65.0 percent, the same as Q2 2025. About 89.5 percent of U.S. housing units were occupied and 10.5 percent were vacant, a broader vacant-stock figure that includes seasonal and other non-rental vacancies. The next Housing Vacancies and Homeownership release is scheduled for October 28, 2026. For the ratio itself, see rental vacancy rate: what it is and why it matters. This article is about the 2026 prints, not the definition.
Occupied rents are still rising, but slowly. The BLS CPI for rent of primary residence in the U.S. city average stood at 447.963 in July 2026, compared with 435.489 in July 2025, a 2.9 percent 12-month increase.[2] That series tracks what sitting tenants pay. It is not advertised asking rent on vacant units, and it is not a ZIP-level median.
Use 2.9 percent as a national drift assumption, not as a lease-renewal target. In a South market at the official 9.5 percent vacancy rate, matching every renewal to the national CPI print is a way to buy vacancy. In a West market at 5.3 percent, the same 2.9 percent may be conservative. Your comps and days-on-market decide whether you can collect it.
Do not substitute HUD Fair Market Rent for that signal. FMR is the 40th-percentile gross rent HUD publishes for Housing Choice Voucher payment standards. FY2026 FMRs were published on August 22, 2025 and took effect October 1, 2025.[4] They are a voucher ceiling, not the rent a typical vacant unit should ask.
Official construction data say completions are running well below last summer. Census and HUD reported privately owned housing completions in July 2026 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,212,000, 16.8 percent below the July 2025 rate of 1,456,000. Completions in buildings with five or more units were 329,000.[3]
Starts also cooled. July 2026 housing starts were 1,239,000, 13.5 percent below July 2025, including 421,000 starts in buildings with five or more units. Permits were the exception: 1,443,000 in July, 3.1 percent above July 2025, including 490,000 authorizations in five-or-more-unit buildings.
Treat those monthly rates with the agency's own caution. Census notes that month-to-month seasonally adjusted changes are often irregular, and that it can take six months to establish a completions trend. The July-to-June completions decline of 9.1 percent carried a plus-or-minus 10.2 percent confidence interval, so that one-month move is not a clean signal. The year-over-year drop is the number whose published range does not contain zero.
A single 7.3 percent national print averages markets that do not behave the same. In Q2 2026, Census rental vacancy was 9.5 percent in the South, 6.9 percent in the Midwest, 5.9 percent in the Northeast, and 5.3 percent in the West. The Northeast and West were not statistically different from each other. Only the Northeast was higher than a year earlier. The Midwest, South, and West were not statistically different from Q2 2025.[1]
The city-versus-suburb split is just as wide: 8.0 percent in principal cities, 6.9 percent in suburbs, and 5.8 percent outside metropolitan statistical areas. None of those area types changed in a statistically meaningful way from Q2 2025. Underwriting a suburban Midwest fourplex at the national 7.3 percent figure mixes three different markets into one haircut.
Use the official regional rate as the first screen, then replace it with local leasing evidence. Census reported a 90 percent confidence interval of 7.1 to 7.5 percent around the national 7.3 percent rental vacancy rate. A 0.3 point year-over-year change that is not statistically significant is a flat print, not a thesis.
Start with a ZIP-level statistical median, not HUD FMR and not a national CPI print. The RentalAnalytics rent estimator blends HUD FY2026 50th-percentile rent with Census ACS 2024 5-year median gross rent (table B25031). It shows FMR separately as the 40th-percentile voucher figure. FMR is never labeled market rent on this site.
Then set vacancy from the official geography that matches the asset, and stress it. A South deal underwritten at 5 percent vacancy ignores a 9.5 percent regional print. A West deal underwritten at 9 percent ignores a 5.3 percent regional print. Run the same rent through the cash flow analyzer at the regional vacancy rate and at plus 2 and plus 5 percentage points before you offer.
Keep rent growth humble until local comps say otherwise. A 2.9 percent occupied-rent index is a ceiling for a base case in a 9.5 percent vacancy region, not a floor. FY2026 FMR is the current voucher year, ACS 2024 5-year is the estimator's Census rent vintage, and the HVS print here is Q2 2026.
The Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey put the national rental vacancy rate at 7.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026. That was not statistically different from 7.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 and was the same as the first quarter of 2026. The next HVS release is scheduled for October 28, 2026.
The BLS CPI for rent of primary residence rose 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending July 2026. That is the change in the occupied-unit rent index, not asking rent on vacant listings. Use it as a national occupied-rent pace, then check local comps and a ZIP-level statistical median before you set a lease price.
Census and HUD reported July 2026 housing completions at a 1,212,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, 16.8 percent below July 2025. Completions in buildings with five or more units were 329,000. Month-to-month moves are noisy. The year-over-year drop is the cleaner signal that the 2024 delivery wave has cooled.
No. In Q2 2026 Census rental vacancy was 9.5 percent in the South and 5.3 percent in the West. Principal cities were 8.0 percent and areas outside MSAs were 5.8 percent. A national 7.3 percent average hides that spread. Start with your region, then stress test vacancy in a cash-flow model.
No. HUD Fair Market Rent is the 40th-percentile gross rent used for Housing Choice Voucher payment standards. It is not a market-rent median. FY2026 FMRs were published August 22, 2025 and took effect October 1, 2025. For a statistical median, use HUD 50th-percentile rent blended with Census ACS data.
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